Bitcoin Surges as Trump’s Election Odds Improve

   Bitcoin’s recent price surge has caught investors’ attention, partly due to its potential link to Donald Trump’s improving chances in the upcoming U.S. presidential election. The digital asset has risen by about 13% in the past week, outpacing global stock indicators and gold. Billionaire Stan Druckenmiller pointed to crypto as one of the signs that markets are pricing in a Trump victory. Trump has pledged to make the U.S. the crypto capital of the world if he wins the tight race against his Democratic rival. His opponent in the election is Vice President Kamala Harris. The cryptocurrency’s advance coincided with shifts in prediction markets, where people can bet on election outcomes. On the Polymarket platform, Trump‘s odds have increased to 60%, while Harris’s have decreased to 40%. PredictIt shows Trump’s chances at 54%, compared to Harris’s 50%. Arisa Toyosaki, co-founder of crypto derivatives provider Cega, noted that enthusiasm in prediction markets is causing high levels of implied volatility. She also mentioned that this has led to a rally in Bitcoin spot prices. Net inflows into a group of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $285 million ($1.6 billion) since October 11. Price Surges Amid Political Shifts Bitcoin traded around $67,300 on Thursday in London, compared to its March record of $73,798. Though prediction markets favor Trump, most polls show a margin-of-error difference with less than three weeks until Election Day. Harris has taken a nuanced stance on cryptocurrencies, promising to support a regulatory framework for digital assets and sector growth with proper safeguards. Her position has sparked optimism among crypto traders, as it contrasts with the Biden Administration’s crackdown. Meltem Demirors, general partner at Crucible Capital, told Bloomberg Television that crypto’s emergence as an election issue is directing attention to bitcoin. She added that it is also drawing focus to crypto assets in general. This attention translates into sentiment, which drives flows. Trump’s support for the sector marks a shift from his previous stance, where he once called it a scam. Digital asset firms have become influential players in elections through large donations to political action committees seeking friendlier rules. Druckenmiller stated in a Bloomberg Television interview that the market over the last 12 days seemed “very convinced” of a Trump victory, visible in bank stocks and crypto performance. As the election approaches, the connection between Bitcoin’s price and political developments continues to intrigue investors and analysts alike.