What Trump’s win means for Bitcoin, tariffs and global finance

   The financial markets divide the days between risk-on and risk-off days – do traders want to buy more, do they think prices will go up? Well today is one of those risk-on days. The big winner is the US stock market. US futures – from big mega companies, to tech firms, all the way down to small cap companies – will see hundreds of billions of dollars added to their value, as traders bet a second Trump Presidency – from a corporate perspective – will look similar to the first, delivering whopping tax cuts and deregulation. While the dollar is soaring, Asian currencies and markets are in the red, with expectations rising that Trump will ramp up trade wars. But far and away, the stand out winner from the Trump Trade is crypto. Bitcoin overnight hit an all time high of over $75,000. A decade ago it was just $800. The Bitcoin Bros have been Trump’s biggest corporate funder – he’s campaigned with them, launched his own stablecoin, and promised to sack the head of the financial regulator if elected. The bigger questions on economic growth, immigration and tariffs will take a bit longer to digest. The Democrats may have been neutered last night – but the bond markets certainly won’t be. There’s been a rise in yields – not quite enough to subdue the buying we’re seeing today – but the bond vigilantes will be worried about extra spending and inflation driven by tariffs. Economists think the Federal Reserve – an organisation Trump wants more control of – will now slow the pace of rate cuts. On tariffs, the question will be whether it’s delivered in one big swoop – 60% on China would double US inflation, say some analysts. Or does the new president start with 10% and threaten more. But given the kind of mandate he’s picked up, he’ll be convinced his economic policies are the right ones. Long term, almost every economist on the planet thinks the immigration strategy of mass deportation will be hugely disruptive and negative for US growth. But today – so far – it’s all about buying.