NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. stock market, Elon Musk’s Tesla, banks and bitcoin are all
storming higher Wednesday as investors bet on what Donald Trump’s return to the White
House will mean for the economy and world. Among the losers the market sees: the value
of the Mexican peso and potentially anyone worried about higher inflation.
The S&P 500 was jumping by 2.1% in early trading and on track to top its all-time high
set last month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1,292 points, or 3.1%, as of
9:35 a.m. Eastern time, while the Nasdaq composite was 2.1% higher.
The U.S. stock market has historically tended to rise regardless of which party wins the
White House, with Democrats scoring bigger average gains since 1945. But Republican
control could mean big shifts in the winners and losers underneath the surface, and
investors are adding to bets built earlier on what the higher tariffs, lower tax rates
and lighter regulation that Trump favors will mean.
“The markets are scrambling to figure out what happens next, but for the time being, the
market is pricing in a higher growth and higher inflation outlook,” Peter Esho of Esho
Capital said.
Of course, how much change Trump will be able to effect will likely depend on whether
his fellow Republicans win control of Congress, and that’s still to be determined. That
could leave room for snaps back in some of Wednesday’s big knee-jerk movements.
Nevertheless, the market is cleaving between rather clear winners and losers following
Trump’s dramatic win. Among them:
BANK STOCKS, up
Bank stocks led the market higher, in part on hopes that a stronger economy would mean
more customers getting loans and paying them back with interest. They also rallied on
hopes for lighter regulation from a Republican White House, which could also spur more
mergers and buyouts where investment banks could earn fees. JPMorgan Chase rose 8.3%,
and the 5.1% jump for financial stocks in the S&P 500 was by far the biggest gain among
the index’s 11 sectors.
Trump has pledged to make the country “the crypto capital of the planet” and create a
“strategic reserve” of bitcoin. The price of bitcoin hit an all-time high above $75,000,
according to Coindesk, and was recently up 7% at nearly $74,000. Other cryptocurrencies
also rallied, including dogecoin, which is a favorite of Musk. Companies in the crypto
industry jumped, including trading platform Coinbase’s 19.4% leap.
Musk has become a close ally of Trump, exhorting the former president’s run. While Trump
may end up hurting the electric-vehicle industry broadly by pulling government
subsidies, analysts say Tesla could gain somewhat of an advantage by already being such
a big player in an industry. Tesla revved 15.1% higher, while rival Rivian Automotive
fell 7.3%
TREASURY BOND PRICES, down
Investors see Trump’s policies potentially leading to stronger economic growth, which
helps to push prices down and yields up for Treasurys. The yield on the 10-year Treasury
jumped to 4.47% from 4.29% late Tuesday, which is a major move for the bond market. It’s
up substantially from August, when it was below 4%.
INFLATION WORRIES, up
Investors also see Trump’s policies adding to future inflation, which likewise pushes up
Treasury yields.
“Trump keeps openly telling people that he will increase tariffs not just on China but
with every trade partner,” said Andrzej Skiba, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income at RBC
Global Asset Management. “We’re talking 10% tariffs across all global partners. This is
a big deal because this could add 1% to inflation. If you add 1% to next year’s
inflation numbers, we should say bye to rate cuts.”
Much of Wall Street’s run to records this year was built on expectations for coming cuts
to interest rates by the Federal Reserve, now that inflation seems to be heading back
down to its 2% target. The Fed will announce its latest decision on interest rates on
Thursday, where the expectation is still for a cut, according to data from CME Group.
But traders are already paring back their expectations for how many cuts the Fed will
make through the middle of next year.
FOREIGN CURRENCY VALUES, down against the dollar
Trump has talked about raising tariffs, which would likely mean Trump has also vowed to
sharply raise tariffs on imports from China, Mexico and other countries, darkening the
outlook for Chinese exporters at a time when Beijing has relied heavily on ramping up
manufacturing to try to revive its slowing economy. The value of the Mexican peso fell
another 2.3% against the dollar.
RENEWABLE ENERGY STOCKS, down
Trump is a fan of fossil fuels, encouraging production of oil and natural gas. His win
sent solar stocks sharply lower, including a 15.1% fall for First Solar.
2024-11-06 15:16:36
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